Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú     

Bryan G. Mark  Geoffrey O. Seltzer  Donald T. Rodbell  Adam Y. Goodman 《Quaternary Research》2002,57(3):287

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.  相似文献   

A DYNAMIC MODE FOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FLOOD/DROUGHT IN YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY AND LOW FREQUENCY WAVE ORIGINATED FROM TROPICAL SEA AREA     

MIAO Qiuju  XU Xiangde  YAO Wenqing  ZHANG Xuejin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,16(3):272-281

According to statistic analysis on sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly features in theNorth Pacific in winters and springs prior to the summer flood/drought in the middle and lowerreaches of the Yangtze River(hereafter referred to as MLRY),a strong signal SST key area thataffects local flood/drought is put forward,that is the equatorial eastern Pacific.The response ofgeneral circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to SST anomaly in the key area is furtherinvestigated. The low frequency wave train structure of correlation between the eastern PacificSST and the height at 500 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere is also studied,which reflects thedynamic features of teleresponse of local flood/drought at extratropics to tropical SST anomaly.Through introducing SST anomaly in the strong signal area in numerical experiments,the flood inYangtze River Valley is successfully simulated and the similar wave train pattern in the flow field isobtained too.Altogether,the physical picture and dynamic mode of the flood in the Yangtze RiverValley are described in this work.  相似文献   

A high-resolution diatom reconstruction between 21,000 and 17,4000 14C yr BP from the southern Bolivian Altiplano (18–23°S)     

Florence Sylvestre 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):45-57

A diatom study of lacustrine sediments in the southern part of the Bolivian Altiplano (Salar of Coipasa) provides a continuous record of the period 21,000–17,500 ¹⁴C yr BP. Constrained by seven AMS ¹⁴C dates, this record provides evidence that the Coipasa basin was filled by a shallow body of water during this time. Diatom/salinity and diatom/ionic composition transfer functions indicate that the lake was saline, dominated by sodium-chloride throughout all the period.A comparison with regional data shows that Lake Titicaca could not have overflowed towards the southern Bolivian Altiplano at that time. As this dry phase was not registered in Lake Coipasa, this lake was probably supplied by winter precipitation originating from the Pacific. But, recent data from the deep basin of Lake Titicaca show that the lake-level was higher during this time interval, and the question arises whether precipitation from Atlantic and Amazonia sources could have played an important role on the Altiplano during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This hypothesis needs to match other available paleoclimatic data from the lowlands of tropical South America, where there is evidence that during the LGM, conditions were drier than today. Global climate simulations suggest a positive P-E on the Altiplano, due to a strong cooling, reducing evaporative demand more than any increase in precipitations. An increase of winter precipitation from the Pacific is in agreement with data from the Chilean coast showing a northward locations of the Westerlies during the LGM. This paleoclimatic hypothesis is also in agreement with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which indicates weaker summer precipitation and stronger winter precipitation in the tropical areas.  相似文献   

CELLULOSE DECOMPOSTION IN TROPICAL PEAT SWAMPS     

Hjh Dulima Jali 《湿地科学》2003,1(1):40-50

Given that organic soil is a complex substrate and there are many environmental factors which directly or indirectly control its decomposition processes, the use of standard substrate simplify the system in that the effect of substrate quality could be eliminated and influence of certain environmental conditions such as edaphic factors, acidity and moisture could be focused on. In addition to the forest floor, decomposition potential down the peat profile can also be examined. Cotton strip assay was used to estimate decomposition potentials in tropical peat swamp occupied by different Shorea Albida peat swamp forest communities, The 'Alan Batu' , the ' Alan Bunga' , the 'Alan Padang' and the ' mixed Alan' forest communities.Greatest decay rates on the peat surface took place during the wet period. The moist condition of the wet months appeared to favour the growth and stimulate activities of decomposer population and soil invertebrates. Generally, 50% of cotton tensile loss is achieved after four weeks  相似文献   

Climatological characteristics of the tropics in China: climate classification schemes between German scientists and Huang Bingwei     

Manfred Domroes 《地理学报》2003,13(3):271-285

Reviewing some important German scientists who have developed climatic regionalization schemes either on a global or Chinese scale, their various definitions of the tropical climate characteristics in China are discussed and compared with Huang Bingwei's climate classification scheme and the identification of the tropical climate therein. It can be seen that, due to different methodological approaches of the climatic regionalization schemes, the definitions of the tropics vary and hence also their spatial distribution in China. However, it is found that the tropical climate type occupies only a peripheral part of southern China, though it firmly represents a distinctive type of climate that is supsequently associated with a great economic importance for China. As such, the tropical climate type was mostly identified with its agro-climatological significance, that is by giving favourable growing conditions all-year round for perennial crops with a great heat demand. Tropical climate is, hence, conventionally regarded to be governed by all-year round summer conditions "where winter never comes".  相似文献   

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：6  

Ken Granger 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):165-185

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.  相似文献   

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000     

Linda J. Anderson-Berry 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):209-232

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.  相似文献   

热带气旋路径预报的MCE客观综合决策方法研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨元琴 《气象》2003,29(5):3-8

采用MCE(Multi-Criteria Evaluation)方法，在台风路径客观综合预报方法研究与业务实验中，根据多家预报的主要结果进行综合评估分析，提出最佳客观综合预报结果以供决策者及预报员参照。取得初步结果：(1)对9711号台风进行了MCE客观综合决策方法的预报试验。结果表明，对于9711号台风生命史中几个关键点的预报，即登陆预报、台风转向北上预报及出海转向预报等以及全程预报，MCE方法取得较佳预报结果。(2)在综合平台上对近10年的疑难路径台风和2000年全年台风进行了MCE方法试验及多种预报结论的对比分析研究。MCE方法预报误差检验结果较好。(3)所提出的模拟预报员预报思维的联想智能模拟方法，以及可操作综合预警平台，为台风路径预报，包括分析、学习、回忆、对比、推理、联想直到形成综合预报结论提供了一个十分有用的工具。(4)讨论的自反馈函数对形成和推演多规则评估决策有一定的实用性。  相似文献   

综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

钟元  胡波 《热带气象学报》2003,19(2):147-156

提出一个综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式。模式应用热带气旋参数、初始和未来环境场，构造客观的相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本在多元判据下的相似程度，从而找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史路径进行坐标变换和相似指数的权重综合，得到预报路径。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。  相似文献   

江淮流域夏季严重旱涝与大气季节内振荡   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

YANG Hui  LI Chongyin 《大气科学进展》2003,20(4):540-553

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和中国气象局国家气象中心提供的中国台站降水资料,分析研究了江淮流域大范围严重旱涝的20-70天大气季节内振荡(ISO)特征。结果表明,对应江淮流域严重涝年,200hPa青藏高原北部存在ISO气旋性环流,青藏高原南部存在ISO反气旋性环流;大气ISO流型在对流层中低层850hPa主要是我国长江以南、南海和西太平洋地区为大气ISO反气旋性环流,我国长江以北到日本地区的大气ISO气旋性环流,我国江淮流域位于这两个ISO涡旋西侧偏南气流和偏北气流的交汇处;旱年反之。利用向量经验正交展开方法得到,上述大气ISO环流型分别是旱涝年大气ISO流型的第一模态,并且涝年大气ISO流型的振幅强,旱年振幅弱。进一步分析揭示,严重洪涝(干旱)年分别对应对流层中上层江淮流域及其以北的中高纬度地区有强(弱)的大气ISO活动。中高纬度地区的大气ISO在严重洪涝年向南传播,与低纬度向北传播的大气ISO在江淮流域汇合;而在严重干旱年,虽然大气ISO可向北传播,但向南的传播却很不明显。  相似文献